Granite Group Advisors -


2011-03-15 :: Japan - 3/15/2011

March 15, 2011

To our clients colleagues and investors,

As the tragic events unfold in Japan, we recognize the fragility of the world economy and the global nature of investments. Catastrophic events have happened before and will happen again. The markets are reacting quickly and with fear, which historically tends to be short-term in nature.

As global markets pull back to more reasonable levels, we see this as an opportunity to deploy capital rather than joining in with the short-term fear response. Japan accounts for 6% of global GDP. If Japan’s GDP falls in half, the effect would be down 0.2% of Global GDP (4.5% Global GDP predicted). Japan needs to rebuild as it has before, so demand for goods and services will expand for years to come.

Here are a few facts to consider:

-- S&P 500 13 times 2011 earnings (at the open today) historically inexpensive

-- 10 year treasury 3.25% very low

-- Oil Approx. $97 (about an 8% drop)

-- Japan Down approx. 20% in two days. Price to book is at a 47% discount to global
    markets.Price/earnings ratio is below global markets for the first time ever!

-- Chernobyl EAFE was up over 69% in 1986 with a 10% drop during the Chernobyl meltdown

We will take appropriate action as events create opportunities.

Do not panic, cooler heads always prevail!

Lyle and Rich

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